CIES predicts final standings for Europe’s top leagues

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CIES predicts final standings for Europe’s top leagues

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The 2020/21 season is still far from ending and there are still pretty much to fight for in the Europe Big Five leagues. However, the CIES Football Observatory has already predicted the final standings for the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1.

A statistical model which takes the shots on target, ball possession and number of passes in the opposite third of the pitch into account, was used to projecting the outcome for the remainder of the season.

For Premier League, Manchester City are expected to hold on to their lead and win the title with a 14-point margin from the second-placed Manchester United. The defending champions Liverpool are expected to finish third, while Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea will get the final Champions league qualification spot by overtaking Leicester with a two-point margin.

At the other end of the table, West Brom, Sheffield United and Burnley are expected to be relegated while Fulham are projected to make a great escape by having a better goal difference than the Clarets.


In the La Liga, Atletico Madrid are expected to win their first league title since the 2013/14 season. Meanwhile, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Sevilla would grab the remaining Champions league spots. Huesca, Real Valladolid and Elche will face relegation while Cadiz will be the only newly promoted side to remain in La Liga.


For the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich are expected to win their ninth consecutive league title. However, their main rivals Borussia Dortmund are predicted to finish a lowly fifth, which means they would miss out the Champions League spot for the first time since the 2015/16 season. In addition, Schalke 04 are expected to finish last with only 13 points.




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For Serie A, Juventus’ nine consecutive league title streak will come to an end as the Old Lady are predicted to finish third. Meanwhile, Inter Milan are tipped to win the league by beating their archrivals AC Milan with only a two-point gap. The current bottom three Parma, Cagliari and Crotone are all expected to be relegated.


For Ligue 1, neither the giants Paris Saint Germain nor the current leaders Lille are expected to win the league. Lyon are predicted to emerge top for the first time since 2007/08. Meanwhile, AS Monaco will grab the Europa League spot, Nantes will face the relegation play-off while Nimes and Dijon will be relegated.


According to the prediction, Bayern Munich will be the only team from the Europe Big Five to successfully defend their league crown. However, only time will tell on how many of the predictions will turn out to be true. 


(Photo: CIES Football Observatory)

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